Some interesting moves in the commodity markets off late. The precious market complex is still languishing near its recent lows while crude oil is near its recent highs. This weeks report focuses on key developments in global commodity markets from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:
Commodities About
Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin is a PhD and received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.
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Showing posts with label asset class. Show all posts
Showing posts with label asset class. Show all posts
Wednesday 12 September 2018
Mid Week Market Insight
Labels:
asset class,
commodities,
crude,
gold,
nickel,
oil,
silver
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Thursday 30 August 2018
Mid Week Market Insight
Markets are at record highs. Valuations appear to be stretched. Here is the latest on valuations from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:
Valuations
Labels:
asset class,
spx,
stocks,
valuations
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Wednesday 22 August 2018
Mid Week Market Insight
The contagion in Turkey appears to be spreading to Brazil, with the Brazilian Real hitting new lows. The US economy continues to hum along with rate hikes on track despite emerging market woes and the strong dollar. The US markets continue to trade near record highs despite developing divergences. These and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:
Economy
Emerging Markets Crisis
Stock Markets
Labels:
asset class,
bonds,
commodities,
economy,
forex,
spx,
stocks
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Wednesday 8 August 2018
Mid Week Market Insight
The Turkish economy and Lira in complete free fall as bond yields eclipse 20%. Chinese stocks continue to post declines and a hard Brexit looks increasingly likely. These and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:
Mid Week Market Insight
Labels:
asset class,
bonds,
commodities,
economy,
forex,
spx,
stocks
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Wednesday 1 August 2018
Some Interesting Market Divergences
The recent up move in the market has come on waning market momentum and declining market breadth. Also the very narrow leadership shown by the FANG stocks is now developing cracks. With valuations still in the stratosphere and tightening by the FED still not priced in, these divergences are worth considering. Here are these and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:
Some Developing Market Divergences
Labels:
asset class,
bonds,
commodities,
divergence,
economy,
forex,
spx,
stocks
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Saturday 28 July 2018
Mid Week Market Insight
A bit of curve steepening going into next weeks fed meeting. Momentum clearly outpacing value and that ever expanding ECB balance sheet. These and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:
Mid Week Market Insight
Labels:
asset class,
bonds,
commodities,
economy,
forex,
spx,
stocks
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Thursday 19 July 2018
Mid Week Market Insight
The Chinese yuan continues its sell off taking other emerging currencies with it. More curve flattening amidst insanely high valuations. These and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:
Mid Week Market Insight
Labels:
asset class,
bonds,
commodities,
economy,
forex,
spx,
stocks
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Wednesday 11 July 2018
Mid Week Market Insight
Trump fires yet another salvo in the trade war with China, which should guarantee a recession down the line given all the curve flattening of late. Turkish bonds, lira and stock market still in free fall. A massive collapse in base metals like copper adding to the recessionary case down the line.These and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:
Midweek Market Insight
Labels:
asset class,
bonds,
commodities,
economy,
forex,
spx,
stocks
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Wednesday 4 July 2018
Mid Week Market Insight
More trouble in emerging market land. Massive curve flattening across the globe. China free fall continues. These and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:
Midweek Market Insight
Labels:
asset class,
bonds,
commodities,
economy,
forex,
spx,
stocks
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Wednesday 27 June 2018
Mid Week Market Insight
China in absolute free fall and the collapse in the yuan is putting pressure on risk assets across the globe. While growth seems to be holding up in the US it is collapsing everywhere else and just a matter of time before the malaise spreads to the US. The emerging market currency rout continues. This and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:
Mid Week Market Insight
Labels:
asset class,
bonds,
commodities,
economy,
forex,
spx,
stocks
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Wednesday 20 June 2018
Mid Week Market Insight
Emerging markets still looking pretty wobbly. A global trade war has begun in earnest. Valuations are still at peak levels. China looks flat out disastrous. Here's all this and more from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:
Mid Week Market Insight
Labels:
asset class,
bonds,
commodities,
economy,
forex,
spx,
stocks
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Wednesday 30 May 2018
Mid Week Market Insight
The dollar continues to surge as the euro plunges in response to the crisis in Italy, which has sent Italian bond yields skyrocketing. A flight to quality in US bonds as a risk off trade emerges. Here are these and other stories from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:
Midweek Market Insight
Labels:
asset class,
bonds,
commodities,
economy,
forex,
spx,
stocks
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Wednesday 23 May 2018
Mid Week Market Insight
The dollar continues to surge and emerging market currencies like the Lira and the PESO are weakening. Italian credit spreads continue to widen and a broad risk off trade is emerging. Here is your mid week market insight on these topics from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:
Midweek Market Insight
Labels:
asset class,
bonds,
commodities,
economy,
forex,
spx,
stocks
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Wednesday 16 May 2018
Mid Week Market Insight
Global risk are piling up off late. Whether it be surging US bond yields or the surging dollar that has arisen out of a collapsing Euro following the Italian elections, risks to global asset classes are on the rise. The prospects for a waterfall decline similar to 1987 are fast rising. Here is your mid week market insight on these topics from some of the best asset managers, market commentators, financial analysts and CMT's of today:
Mid Week Market Insight
Labels:
asset class,
bonds,
commodities,
forex,
spx,
stocks
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Wednesday 9 May 2018
Daily Market Insight
Here is your daily market insight from some of the best asset managers, financial analysts and CMT's of today:
Daily Market Insight
Labels:
asset class,
bonds,
commodities,
forex,
spx,
stocks
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Wednesday 2 May 2018
Daily Market Insight
Here is your daily market insight from some of the best asset managers, financial analysts and CMT's of today:
Daily Market Insight
Labels:
asset class,
bonds,
commodities,
fed,
forex,
spx,
stocks
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Wednesday 14 March 2018
Bitcoin Signalling Major Risk Off Trade?
A look at the relationship between bitcoin returns and other asset class returns over the last year throws up some interesting details. There is a weak inverse relationship between bitcoin returns and the 10 year bond yield changes but the relationship between other asset class returns and bitcoin returns is not statistically significant. This suggests a continued melt down in bitcoin is a precursor to higher bond yields which could trigger a move out of risky assets:
A look at the relationship of bitcoin itself with other asset classes over the last year reveals some additional info. We can see that bitcoin shows a strong positive relationships with most asset classes and the ten year bond yield and a strong negative relationship with copper. This suggests that the recent sell off in bitcoin could be a precursor to a major risk off trade:
Bitcoin Returns Vs Other Asset Class Returns
|
Correlation
|
Significance
|
S & P 500
|
0.156
|
0.273
|
Ten Year Bond Yield
|
-0.340
|
0.015
|
Euro
|
0.034
|
0.813
|
Gold
|
0.047
|
0.743
|
Copper
|
-0.160
|
0.261
|
Crude
|
-0.180
|
0.207
|
A look at the relationship of bitcoin itself with other asset classes over the last year reveals some additional info. We can see that bitcoin shows a strong positive relationships with most asset classes and the ten year bond yield and a strong negative relationship with copper. This suggests that the recent sell off in bitcoin could be a precursor to a major risk off trade:
Bitcoin Vs Other
Asset Classes
|
Correlation
|
Significance
|
S & P 500
|
0.860
|
0.000
|
Ten Year Bond Yield
|
0.530
|
0.000
|
Euro
|
0.673
|
0.000
|
Gold
|
0.476
|
0.000
|
Copper
|
-0.879
|
0.000
|
Crude Oil
|
0.800
|
0.000
|
Labels:
asset class,
bitcoin,
bond yield,
copper,
crude,
euro,
gold,
spx
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
Tuesday 20 January 2015
Bear Market Lessons from History
While the financial media tends to be absolutely infatuated with stocks hitting new highs every day, we would do well to pay attention to some ongoing bear markets, Charts are courtesy yahoo finance and marketwatch.com:
1) Japanese stocks continue to languish under the effects of deflation following a well over 26 year old bear market, down over 45% from the highs set in 1989.
2) Despite some great innovation out of the U.S from the likes of Apple, Google, Facebook e.t.c the #NASDAQ continues to remain in a 15 year bear market near its highs set in 2000.
3) Despite going parabolic yet again, Chinese stocks continue to remain in a 7 year bear market down well over 50% from the highs set in 2008.
4) US bank stocks are entering a 7 year bear market despite all the #QE money and super low interest rates down over 30% from their highs set in 2008.
5) The #Euro is also in a 7 year bear market down over 25% against the dollar from it's highs set in 2008.
6) #Gold and gold ETF's continue to be in bear markets down well over 35% from their highs set in 2008.
7) The more recent casualty #oil and oil ETF's are down well over 60% from their highs set in 2008.
It is well worth noting that it is no strange coincidence that there are major bear markets in several key asset classes and despite recent bear market rallies caused by the FED's QE for ever policies the hibernating bear is all set to emerge with a vengeance.
1) Japanese stocks continue to languish under the effects of deflation following a well over 26 year old bear market, down over 45% from the highs set in 1989.
2) Despite some great innovation out of the U.S from the likes of Apple, Google, Facebook e.t.c the #NASDAQ continues to remain in a 15 year bear market near its highs set in 2000.
3) Despite going parabolic yet again, Chinese stocks continue to remain in a 7 year bear market down well over 50% from the highs set in 2008.
4) US bank stocks are entering a 7 year bear market despite all the #QE money and super low interest rates down over 30% from their highs set in 2008.
5) The #Euro is also in a 7 year bear market down over 25% against the dollar from it's highs set in 2008.
6) #Gold and gold ETF's continue to be in bear markets down well over 35% from their highs set in 2008.
7) The more recent casualty #oil and oil ETF's are down well over 60% from their highs set in 2008.
It is well worth noting that it is no strange coincidence that there are major bear markets in several key asset classes and despite recent bear market rallies caused by the FED's QE for ever policies the hibernating bear is all set to emerge with a vengeance.
Bear Market Lessons From History http://t.co/TcQy3nOE0r pic.twitter.com/wNba6Jh5Ys
— samuelR (@RajveerRawlin) September 7, 2015
Labels:
asset class,
bear market,
euro,
fed,
gold,
nasdaq,
oil,
qe,
stock market
I have over 27 years of experience tracking capital markets across the globe, I write about financial markets and teach MBA students financial markets and investing
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Rupee falls 29 paise to close at 82.68 against US dollar - During the day, the rupee touched a high of 82.45 and a low of 82.68 against the greenback. On Friday, the rupee had settled at 82.39 against the dollar.10 months ago
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ES Hourly cloud and 4 Hour chart - - ES Hour moving towards the hourly cloud which may act as resistance. - 4 Hour chart shows a possible bullish candle which may give new high's ...2 years ago
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JUST NIFTY BLOG 10-01-2020 - Bulk Deals FII DII Stats Date # of Deals Total Volume (In Millions) 01-01-1970 0 0.00 Click here to see all Bulk Deals Date Category Buy Amount (Rs. Cror...4 years ago
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Vist Note on Federal Bank - We recently met the senior management of Federal Bank which is one of the old private sector banks with a distribution network of 1252 branches (48% Kerala...6 years ago
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Nifty Bulls bounces ferociously holding 9930,EOD Analysis - FII's bought 4.8 K contract of Index Future worth 262 cores ,9.7 K Long contract were added by FII's and 4.8 K Short contracts were added by FII's. Net Ope...6 years ago
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Midcap & Smallcap Index Corrects, Lets Come Back To Fundamentals Again - Midcap Index had made a high of 18511 on 16th May 2017, fell almost 7% and is currently trading at 17230. Smallcap Index made all time high of 7679 on 11th...6 years ago
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Market outlook for 30/10/2016 - *Nifty closed up 22.75 points (0.26%) at 8638.00* while Future closed at 8667.40, premium of 29.40 points. *Bank Nifty closed up 41.35 points (0.21%) at 19...7 years ago
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Option Open Interest for 28-10-2016 - Inference The index opened flat to positive and after making an initial low around 8581 saw some short covering to close at 8638.00, gain of 22.75 points. ...7 years ago
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Market Review for 23rd August 2016 - *Nifty (8629)* we said ‘technically trend is still intact but there exists selling pressure near 8746 and support around 8600 zones’ the Nifty unfolded as...7 years ago
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ITC To Resume Cigarette Manufacturing - ITC manufactures a range of cigarette brands, including India Kings, Classic, Gold Flake, Navy Cut, Capstan, Bristol, Flake, Silk Cut, which are manufactur...8 years ago
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My Asset Allocation Strategy (Indian Market)
Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%
My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%
My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.