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Ahead of the Curve provides you with analysis and insight into today's global financial markets. The latest news and views from global stock, bond, commodity and FOREX markets are discussed. Rajveer Rawlin received his MBA in finance from the Cardiff Metropolitan University, Wales, UK. He is an avid market watcher having followed capital markets in the US and India since 1993. His research interests includes areas of Capital Markets, Banking, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management and has over 20 years of experience in the above areas covering the US and Indian Markets. He has several publications in the above areas. The views expressed here are his own and should not be construed as advice to buy or sell securities.

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Definition of a Recession: The textbook definition of a recession is two quarters of negative GDP growth. Some examples of recessions in...

Wednesday, 7 February 2018

The Most Important Crowded Trade of All?

We have recently witnessed or are about to witness the implosion of a series of crowded trades namely long bitcoin, long Index ETF's and short volatility. The most important crowded trade of all is the dollar carry trade and this has been in vogue since the early 1980's. However the dollar appears to have broken out of its long term down trend line in the last 8 years post the great recession of 2008 though reluctantly so. When the real up move in the dollar occurs which is imminent look for massive carry trade liquidation and a rout in risky assets such as stocks, commodities and emerging market currencies:

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Cash - 40%
Bonds - 20%
Fixed deposit - 20%
Gold - 5%
Stocks - 10% ( Majority of this in dividend funds)
Other Asset Classes - 5%

My belief is that stocks are relatively overvalued compared to bonds and attractive buying opportunities can come along after 1-2 years. In a deflationary scenario no asset class does well other than U.S bonds, the U.S dollar and the Japanese yen, so better to be safe than sorry with high quality government bonds and fixed deposits. Cash is the king always. Of course this varies with the person's age.